Editorial Standards and Corrections
How we research, write, assess probability and correct our work.
Sourcing
We rely on primary sources wherever possible: official documents, legislation, company filings, satellite imagery and on-the-record interviews. When we rely on secondary reporting we cite it. Anonymous sources are used only when there is no other way to obtain important information, and never for personal attacks.
Assessing probability
Where our analysis makes judgements about the future, we use the probability language of the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment (PHIA). Each term corresponds to an approximate range of likelihood, so that readers know how confident we are.
| Term | Approximate likelihood |
|---|---|
| Remote chance | 0–5% |
| Highly unlikely | 10–20% |
| Unlikely | 25–35% |
| Realistic possibility | 40–50% |
| Likely or probably | 55–75% |
| Highly likely | 80–90% |
| Almost certain | 95–100% |
Corrections
We correct factual errors promptly and transparently. Corrections are noted at the end of the article with the date and the nature of the change. Significant updates to analysis are marked as updates. To report an error, write to corrections@northgateanalysis.co.uk.
Conflicts of interest
Authors declare relevant financial or professional interests, which we disclose alongside their work.